Weather with Bill Evans
Good Day On This Wednesday May 1, 2024
A weak frontal wave continues pushing offshore early this
morning with high pressure returning this afternoon into
tonight. Another weak frontal system passes across the area
Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into early Saturday.
A weak frontal system approaches Saturday and passes through
late in the weekend or early next week. A warm front approaches
late Tuesday.
A progressive and flat ridge will slide across New England
today with weak high pressure at the surface. Lingering clouds
this morning should give way to some sunshine, especially late
morning into the afternoon. Light NE flow to begin the day
should give way to a SE flow in the afternoon. There are hints
in some of the guidance for a passing shower in the afternoon
across interior CT. Feel this may be overdone, but did keep a
bit more cloud cover in this part of the region. Temperatures
are bit of a challenge again, but the usual warmer locations in
NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and parts of NYC should be able to
reach the middle to upper 70s. Onshore flow should keep
locations further east a bit lower with highs in the middle to
upper 60s.
Some low clouds make a return tonight leading to mostly cloudy
conditions. The ridge axis slides to the east overnight with
another shortwave beginning to swing across northern New
England towards Thursday morning. Lows range from the middle to
upper 40s across Long Island and southeast Connecticut to lower
50s from the NYC metro on NW.
The shortwave moving across northern New England will send a
weak frontal wave across the region on Thursday. The energy and
lift from the shortwave passes to our north and east, so not
anticipating any showers. The main forecast challenge on
Thursday will be with high temperatures and the timing of a wind
shift associated with the frontal wave. The faster guidance
would allow the winds to become more westerly in the afternoon,
especially away from the immediate coast, giving temperatures a
boost.
High pressure builds across New England Thursday night and
should remain in control through Friday night. There is some
uncertainty regarding any stratus development for Thursday night
into Friday morning as an ENE flow off develops. Will go with
increasing clouds, but keep the forecast mostly cloudy for now.
At least partial clearing is expected Friday afternoon, but this
will be short-lived as clouds begin increasing again from west
to east Friday night ahead of the next frontal system and
shortwave energy. Temperatures Friday should end up close to
seasonable levels.
An upper level ridge builds over the area on Saturday as high
pressure continues to nose down from our northeast. A weak
frontal system approaches from the west and continues to weaken
as it runs into the high. This creates a bit of a tricky PoP
forecast for Saturday, but continued previous thinking of
keeping much of Saturday dry as the upper level ridge axis
doesn't pass through until Saturday evening.
Dry conditions are expected by early Monday morning. Brief, weak
high pressure builds in, with a weak cold front/surface trough
potentially passing through Monday evening. Heights rise aloft
slightly on Monday and expecting mostly sunny skies. This combined
with a light westerly flow should lead to some above normal
temperatures Monday. Went closer to the NBM 50th percentile as the
deterministic was closer to the 25th percentile. This gives
widespread low to mid 70s across the area.
A warm front approaches the area late Tuesday. There remains
uncertainty as to whether the warm front will remain nearby or
lift to the north late Tuesday and will thus affect
temperatures across the area. Mid level energy from the west
will attempt to break down any riding in the mid levels.
A weak pressure gradient remains in place, with an extended
period of conditions below SCA levels through early next week.
Seas may reach 3-4 feet late Sunday into Monday with a weak frontal
system moving through.
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